The COP31 climate talks will be happening in Antalya, Türkiye from the 9th-20th November 2026.
If you are heading to the talks, or want to follow their progress, these are just some of the points that we at The Borrowed Earth Project have picked out to watch.
Antalya, Türkiye
COP31 Presidency aims and Action Plan
One way to judge the success or failure of COP31 will be by reviewing the outcomes that the joint Turkish and Australian Presidency achieve in delivering the key objectives of their own Action Plan. These cover –
Zero Waste
Climate Resilient Cities
Climate Implementation Bridge
Youth and Education
Green Industrialisation
Clean Energy Transition
Rio Synergy
Dynamic and Resilient Health Systems.
Details for each objective in the Action Plan are here: https://cop31.tr/action-plan
What is the problem?
Atmospheric CO2, and global warming
The context for all of this has to be the science of atmospheric C02 levels, which have been regularly recorded since 1958 at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii. For the week ending 6 November 2026, these now stand at 428.38 parts per million.
This continues to be the highest level for 3 million years, since the mid Pliocene period, when sea levels were 15 metres higher, and Arctic summer temperatures were 14 degrees warmer. Sometimes it is necessary in negotiations to keep returning to facts like this.
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return
This report found that:
‘the chance of holding global warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels with no or limited overshoot is gone. The task now is to minimize the duration and magnitude of overshoot and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century’.
The report looks at a ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming is limited to 1.7-1.8°C. To get onto this pathway, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would have to be cut by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, relative to 2025 levels. Large-scale removals of CO2 from the atmosphere will be required to return to or below 1.5°C’.
What are countries doing about it?
Updated NDCs – the 2026 NDC Synthesis Report, 20230/2035 targets
The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are country-specific plans for emissions reductions offered under the Convention on Climate Change, and setting out their plans for 2030 to 2035. Analysis of 127 new NDCs from 154 parties, making up 71% of global emissions, states.
‘While the report shows that implementation of the Paris Agreement is delivering significant progress towards its goals, particularly in terms of mainstreaming climate in policymaking, it also shows that collective progress in lowering projected emissions remains substantially off track from the reductions required by the science to keep the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C this century within reach and to keep temporary overshoot as short and shallow as possible.’
Other areas of likely interest in the negotiations
Loss and Damage Capitalisation
Expect continued heated debate about inadequate financing for the Loss and Damage Fund set up at COP27 in Egypt in 2022. Nepal is just the latest example of the gap between what is needed and what is provided.
Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels
An initiative by 57 countries including Colombia, the Netherlands, France and Germany to find practical ways to move away from coal, oil and gas. Sometimes when progress with a worldwide consensus remains out of reach, these groups of countries willing to make progress drive issues forward.
Super Pollutant Country Accelerator
Another initiative taken by a group of participating countries designed to encourage regional and in-country action to reduce pollution from ‘Super Pollutants’ including methane, black carbon and HFCs.
Timeline for IPCC 7th Assessment Report AR7
Publication of the IPCC’s seventh Assessment Report has been continually delayed, presumably due to political in-fighting with fossil fuel producing countries, and sustained pressure from governments and civil society is need to ensure that it is published without further delays.
Shrink demand to shrink dependency?
Some fossil fuel producing countries have gone out of their way to maintain and increase our dependency on fossil fuels, by severe restrictions on the development of renewable energy, continued high subsidies to fossil fuel production, sabotaging the Plastics Treaty and obstructing and delaying any progress on climate negotiations wherever possible.
The other side of that coin is that shrinking demand for fossil fuels can only reduce our dependency on them. Wars in the Middle East and Russia and attacks on key supply routes that drive up the price of fuel and fertiliser are the most powerful arguments possible in favour of reducing long term dependence on fossil fuels.
Many people who may not be greatly concerned about COP31 or climate negotiations will be feeling the direct impacts of higher fuel prices. They are all have a potential interest in shrinking our dependency on fossil fuels, by finding ways to buy less of them
Tracking tipping points
The Potsdam Institute continues to lead on tracking critical tipping points in the world’s ability to withstand climate change, and will be represented at COP31. It is worth checking in on their current findings.
Integrity of science
There have been determined and sustained attacks on climate science from some governments and fossil fuel interests. Civil society and the IPCC need to be really vigilant to ensure the maximum transparency and to maintain the integrity of key climate scientific reporting and processes. See, for example this article from The Guardian on Saudi Aramco scientists becoming involved in the authorship of key sections of IPCC reports.
The COP process itself
Each time there is a COP, stories emerge about the number and activities of fossil fuel lobbyists, often taken as part of national delegations. The best answer to that may be a drive for the fullest transparency. But that and the painfully slow progress in addressing known problems lead many to question whether the whole COP progress is worth it.
On that, we would refer to the comments of the late, great, Peter Betts, a leading climate negotiator for the UK and EU in his book The Climate Diplomat -
“No one would be more pleased to see the end of the COP process than big oil and gas interests in the US who sought to undermine COPs throughout my decade or more in negotiations.”