Biodiversity, National Security Assessment & IPBES 12 Plenary
On 20 January 2026, in response to a Freedom of Information request from , the UK government published its national security assessment ‘Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security’. Despite having almost no introduction, and little or no clues being given as to what we the public should all be doing about it, this is a remarkable, and bleak, assessment of the serious and urgent risks to UK national security from potential ecosystem collapse in other key areas of the world. It is surely one which Parliamentary Committees and eNGOs will need to focus on and interrogate.
Key judgements include:
Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity
Cascading risks of ecosystem degradation are likely to include geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflict, migration and increased inter-state competition for resources
Critical ecosystems that support major global food production and impact global climate, water and weather cycles are the most important for UK national security …”The Amazon rainforest, Congo rainforest, boreal forests, the Himalayas and South East Asia’s coral reefs and mangroves are particularly significant for the UK.”
Ecosystem degradation is occurring across all regions. Every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse
There is a realistic possibility that some ecosystems (such as coral reefs in South East Asia and boreal forests) start to collapse from 2030, and others (rainforests and mangroves) start to collapse from 2050
All countries are exposed to the risks of ecosystem collapse within and beyond their borders
Without significant increases in UK food system and supply chain resilience, it is unlikely the UK would be able to maintain food security if ecosystem collapse drives geopolitical competition for food… “The UK relies on imports for a proportion of both food and fertiliser and cannot currently produce enough food to feed its population based on current diets. Countries best placed to adapt are those that invest in ecosystem protection and restoration, and resilient and efficient food systems.
It comes just before the UK government is due to host the plenary talks in Manchester, on 3-8 February 2026 of IPBES 12 , the global biodiversity talks.
True to current form, the US has announced that it is withdrawing from any participation in the IPBES.
To support and inform participation by the likes of the Global Youth Biodiversity Network The Borrowed Earth Project produced a 6 minute film Biodiversity and Climate Change which is an introduction to the issues that IPBES Plenary delegates will be debating.
There is a separate Biodiversity section of our website, with explanations of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the Dasgupta Report on the Economics of Biodiversity.
